Utility of a molecular signature for predicting recurrence and progression in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients: comparison with the EORTC, CUETO and 2021 EAU risk groups

Abstract

To evaluate the utility of different risk assessments in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) patients, a total of 178 NMIBC patients from Chungbuk National University Hospital (CBNUH) were enrolled, and the predictive value of the molecular signature-based subtype predictor (MSP888) and risk calculators based on clinicopathological factors (EORTC, CUETO and 2021 EAU risk scores) was compared. Of the 178 patients, 49 were newly analyzed by the RNA-sequencing, and their MSP888 subtype was evaluated. The ability of the EORTC, MSP888 and two molecular subtyping systems of bladder cancer (Lund and UROMOL subtypes) to predict progression of 460 NMIBC patients from the UROMOL project was assessed. Cox regression analyses showed that the MSP888 was an independent predictor of NMIBC progression in the CBNUH cohort (p = 0.043). Particularly in patients without an intravesical BCG immunotherapy, MSP888 significantly linked with risk of disease recurrence and progression (both p < 0.05). However, the EORTC, CUETO and 2021 EAU risk scores showed disappointing results with respect to estimating the NMIBC prognosis. In the UROMOL cohort, the MSP888, Lund and UROMOL subtypes demonstrated a similar capacity to predict NMIBC progression (all p < 0.05). Conclusively, the MSP888 is favorable for stratifying patients to facilitate optimal treatment.