Development of predictive mathematical model for the growth kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus by response surface model

Abstract

A response surface model was developed for predicting the growth rates of Staphylococcus aureus in tryptic soy broth (TSB) medium as a function of combined effects of temperature, pH, and NaCl. The TSB containing six different concentrations of NaCl (0, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10%) was adjusted to an initial of six different pH levels (pH 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10) and incubated at 10, 20, 30, and 40°C. In all experimental variables, the primary growth curves were well (r2=0.9000 to 0.9975) fitted to a Gompertz equation to obtain growth rates. The secondary response surface model for natural logarithm transformations of growth rates as a function of combined effects of temperature, pH, and NaCl was obtained by SAS's general linear analysis. The predicted growth rates of the S. aureus were generally decreased by basic (pH 9-10) or acidic (pH 5-6) conditions and higher NaCl concentrations. The response surface model was identified as an appropriate secondary model for growth rates on the basis of correlation coefficient (r=0.9703), determination coefficient (r2=0.9415), mean square error (MSE=0.0185), bias factor (Bf=1.0216), and accuracy factor (Af=1.2583). Therefore, the developed secondary model proved reliable for predictions of the combined effect of temperature, NaCl, and pH on growth rates for S. aureus in TSB medium.